Are We Having an Early Hurricane Season in 2021?

Are We Having an Early Hurricane Season in 2021?

Storm forecasting got off to an earlier start this year after consecutive years of pre-season hurricane activity. Hurricane season in the Atlantic broke records last year, and this year is expected to be much of the same.

Every year for the past six years in the Atlantic, at least one named tropical storm has formed before June 1 - the season's official start.

For this reason, the National Hurricane Center decided that beginning this year, 'tropical weather outlook' forecasts will begin on May 15 rather than June 1. That means now the "official" June 1 start date is now more of a formality than anything else.

The goal is to address areas of more significant concern that are typically more impacted by early seasons.

It's not only the Atlantic ocean basin that has seen recent years of tropical activity. May 15 is also the official start of the eastern Pacific hurricane season. It was already off to a running start. Tropical Storm Andres was the first storm in this area after forming 600 miles south of Baja, California. Tropical Storm Andres became the earliest recorded storm to ever form in the eastern Pacific, surpassing even Adrian in 2017, which began on May 10 of that year.

Early storms are not always caused for early worry; however, pre-season storms don't always mean the entire season will be active. Back in 2015, when Ana became the first named storm in the Atlantic basin on May 7, the season as a whole ended up being actually below average with a total of 11 named storms.

On the other hand, in 2020, Arthur, the first storm named on May 16, again two weeks before the season's official start, was relentless. The season went on to become the busiest one in modern history.

So even if no Atlantic storms form in the next couple of weeks, it doesn't mean this season won't be busy. Forecasters are calling for this year to be another hectic Hurricane season.

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